Who bombed the Nordstream pipeline? Two questions are obviously who has the motive and the capacity. While some point to a crude argument, that America wants to increase its natural gas exports to Europe at Russia`s expense, I don't think this is it. Primarily because the only thing bombing nordstream changes in the equation is adding a few hundred million dollars between Russian gas and Europe. Not nothing, but is it worth committing a brazen act of war? Not in my opinion (although as an incentive for Norway? Sure). Instead, I believe the motive is much more tactical: Biden became concerned that the European alliance, key to the sanctions regime on Russia, might falter amidst the energy crisis. Comments from the press, and leading NATO and EU figures, around the time of this bombing reflect this concern.

How could bombing nordstream, which would permanently cut off Russian gas, help? It would mean there is no going back for Europe: there is no payoff for ending war supply to Ukraine, and no payoff to ending sanctions on Russia. This is especially the case for Germany, a highly Russian-gas dependent country, on the fence in 2022, and starting this year, has been slowly a bigger partner in supplying Ukraine. With no way back to Gazprom town, there remains only then one option.

Here, I highlight key point showing that the issue of appeasement vs unity was a central concern. It was a point politicians and analysts had to respond to, and a point EU, NATO, and US leading figures (such as Antony Blinken) had to rally around, reflecting their growing concern. In this context, it is undeniable that maintaining EU/NATO unity was a central concern for Biden. A step which closes the door on appeasement thus appears a logical, if brazen, move. Furthermore, while this is merely a sample of articles I manually pulled, I sampled from my RSS feed of news articles from that time point. There may be gaps. However, at least from the sample I have drawn, a ramp-up of concerns about unity vs appeasement spikes during September, as the winter energy crisis scenario draws closer. Note: Don`t assume any bullet points are related to each other - these are merely intended as cues. For full context, read the article. There may be a proper noun in bullet point A, and a pronoun in bullet point B; that pronoun might refer to a different person.

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Seymour Hersh (2023 02 08): How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline - The New York Times called it a “mystery,” but the United States executed a covert sea operation that was kept secret—until now

• The administration’s attention once again was focused on Nord Stream. As long as Europe remained dependent on the pipelines for cheap natural gas, Washington was afraid that countries like Germany would be reluctant to supply Ukraine with the money and weapons it needed to defeat Russia.
• What became clear to participants [at December 2021 meeting], according to the source with direct knowledge of the process, is that Sullivan intended for the group to come up with a plan for the destruction of the two Nord Stream pipelines—and that he was delivering on the desires of the President.
• What came next was stunning. On February 7, less than three weeks before the seemingly inevitable Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden met in his White House office with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who, after some wobbling, was now firmly on the American team. At the press briefing that followed, Biden defiantly said, “If Russia invades . . . there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
• Twenty days earlier, Undersecretary Nuland had delivered essentially the same message at a State Department briefing, with little press coverage. “I want to be very clear to you today,” she said in response to a question. “If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”
• Norway was one of the original signatories of the NATO Treaty in 1949, in the early days of the Cold War. Today, the secretary general of NATO is Jens Stoltenberg, a committed anti-communist, who served as Norway’s prime minister for eight years before moving to his high NATO post, with American backing, in 2014. He was a hardliner on all things Putin and Russia who had cooperated with the American intelligence community since the Vietnam War. He has been trusted completely since. “He is the glove that fits the American hand,” the source said.
• Back in Washington, planners knew they had to go to Norway. “They hated the Russians, and the Norwegian navy was full of superb sailors and divers who had generations of experience in highly profitable deep-sea oil and gas exploration,” the source said. They also could be trusted to keep the mission secret. (The Norwegians may have had other interests as well. The destruction of Nord Stream—if the Americans could pull it off—would allow Norway to sell vastly more of its own natural gas to Europe.)
• Instead, the White House had a new request: “Can the guys in the field come up with some way to blow the pipelines later on command?”
• In the immediate aftermath of the pipeline bombing, the American media treated it like an unsolved mystery. Russia was repeatedly cited as a likely culprit, spurred on by calculated leaks from the White House—but without ever establishing a clear motive for such an act of self-sabotage, beyond simple retribution. A few months later, when it emerged that Russian authorities had been quietly getting estimates for the cost to repair the pipelines, the New York Times described the news as “complicating theories about who was behind” the attack. No major American newspaper dug into the earlier threats to the pipelines made by Biden and Undersecretary of State Nuland.

WSJ (2022 09 15): Households a Wild Card as Europe Moves to End Russian Gas Dependence - Economists are worried that the continent’s consumers won’t follow companies in reducing their energy use

NYT (2022 09 15): Giorgia Meloni May Lead Italy, and Europe Is Worried - The hard-right leader has excoriated the European Union in the past, and she regularly blasts illegal immigration and George Soros. But she is closer than ever to becoming prime minister.

• A strangely fawning article about the fascist
• Even so, Mr. Salvini is already creating problems for Ms. Meloni by urging a reconsideration of sanctions against Russia.
• But on the threshold of running Italy, Ms. Meloni has pivoted. After years of fawning over Ms. Le Pen, she is suddenly distancing herself. (“I haven’t got relations with her,” she said.) Same for Mr. Orban. (“I didn’t agree with some positions he had about Ukrainian war.”) She now calls Mr. Putin an anti-Western aggressor and said she would “totally” continue to send offensive arms to Ukraine.

NYT (2022 09 14): Top E.U. Official Is Becoming an Unexpected Wartime Leader - In her annual address, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, pushed for the bloc to remain firm in the face of Russian aggression.

• “She is very aware of the vast improvement of trans-Atlantic relations and ascribes a great deal of this to her close relationship with Joe Biden,” said Mr. Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.
• She has been particularly criticized by European Parliament members for mishandling Hungary and its growing role as a spoiler in the E.U. decision-making process, most recently breaking ranks with peers to cut direct deals with the Kremlin and Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned natural gas company.
• In a rare public mutiny against a commission president, her top lieutenants — European Commission vice presidents — openly disagreed with her when, to reward Poland for its full-throttled support of Ukraine, Ms. von der Leyen decided that the bloc should put aside concerns about the country’s governance and grant it billions in E.U. funds.
• And she is locked into a seemingly frosty relationship with the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, who heads the other key E.U. institution tasked with coordinating the decisions and forging consensus among E.U. national governments. The council is the forum for the democratically elected governments and can be at times at odds with the commission, which is a body of civil servants.

NYT (2022 09 14): E.U. Calls for Taxes to Battle Rising Energy Prices - The European Commission wants the bloc’s members to impose taxes on the profits of energy companies to fund handouts to households and businesses.

• Frans Timmermans, the European Union’s top climate official, said the bloc needed to present a united front at a time when Russia was using its energy supplies as a political weapon to try and bludgeon Europe.
• “Putin seeks to divide us,” he said, “but we have to show to him that we’re much stronger than that.”

NYT (2022 09 14): The E.U.’s top official lays out plans for lasting support of Ukraine. - Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union message asserted that the European Union would stick together against Russia despite the economic costs.

• “I want to make it very clear — the sanctions are here to stay. This is the time for us to show resolve, not appeasement,” she said, adding that she would visit Ukraine later on Wednesday in a previously unannounced trip.

TAP (2022 09 13): Europe’s Energy Crisis - Is there a solution anytime soon? And what are the spillover effects on the U.S. and the global economy?

• Last Friday in Brussels, Secretary of State Tony Blinken urged Europe not to drop its sanctions against Putin’s war, declaring, “We will not let our European friends freeze.” But that pledge was empty. There is no large source of energy that the U.S. can call on to replace Putin’s gas.

NYT (2022 09 09-10): Russia-Ukraine War: U.S. Urges European Nations: Don’t Let Putin ‘Bully’ Over Energy Prices

• Blinken says Russia is using energy supplies to ‘break the will’ of European countries.
• BRUSSELS — Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken on Friday said that the United States’ European allies must stand firm against President Vladimir V. Putin’s efforts to “bully” them this winter by manipulating energy prices.
• “President Putin is betting that these actions will break the will of countries to stand with Ukraine,” Mr. Blinken said in an appearance at NATO headquarters. “He’s betting that the Kremlin can bully other countries into submission.”
• Mr. Stoltenberg also warned that, in the coming months, NATO’s “unity and solidarity will be tested with pressure on energy supplies and the soaring cost of living caused by Russia’s war.”

FT (2022 09 11): Opinion: Vladimir Putin has forced the EU into a long-overdue energy union - The desire for national control has delayed the removal of physical bottlenecks in European energy flows

• To their chagrin, Germany made itself more, not less, exposed to Putin by pushing forward the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This was not even the worst mistake in European energy policy: more foolish still was the failure to secure alternatives, so that energy trade need not mean geopolitical dependence.
• The danger some warned against is now a reality clear to all. Putin’s weaponisation of energy has caused a massive international wealth transfer from energy-importing countries to exporters such as Russia itself. Politically more perilous is redistribution from consumers to producers of energy even within countries. The fact that electricity is priced at the marginal generation cost has allowed the Kremlin to drive up power prices to extreme levels as well.
• Millions of energy users are facing serious hardship. This could produce political paralysis, distraction from Ukraine (as Putin clearly hopes), and even civil unrest. European governments are keenly aware of the risks — “three years of these prices, and we have Hitler”, as one official put it to me.

NYT (2022 09 10): Opinion: The Ukraine War’s Decisive Season

• At the same time the Russian answer to Ukrainian courage and Western armaments is about to take full effect. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is shut down, Europe’s leaders are scrambling to prepare for a potential $2 trillion surge in energy costs, and everyone is trying to predict the consequences — from a shallow recession to a “full stop” that threatens deindustrialization, from stiff-upper-lip support for Ukraine to populist rebellion.
• In wartime there is a dynamic relationship between events on the front and the political situation behind the lines. Some Western pessimists, conditioned by years of elite failure, expect the European home front to be the crucial theater, the place where hawkish hubris generates domestic rebellion against an open-ended commitment to Ukraine.

NYT (2022 09 08): Paul Krugman Opinion: Wartime Economics Comes to Europe

• Russia has retaliated with a de facto embargo on exports of natural gas to Europe. This shows how Vladimir Putin actually thinks the war is going. After all, this will have huge long-run costs: Nobody will ever again consider Russia a reliable trading partner. But Putin appears willing to bear those costs in an attempt to bully the West into reducing its support for Ukraine — which he wouldn’t do if he were confident about the military situation.

FT (2022 09 08): US’s gas rescue plan for Europe threatens domestic backlash - American market price is cheap by global standards but triple levels of the past decade

• But $9 is still triple the average US gas price of the past decade, and thus holds the potential to drive sharp increases in home heating and electricity prices at a time when inflation is close to 40-year highs.
• In July, state governors in the north-eastern New England region warned the White House of a potential jump in gas prices in the winter. They alluded to the US’s pledge to help Europe reduce reliance on Russian gas, made weeks after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
• “We appreciate that the [Joe] Biden administration has been working with European allies to expand fuel exports to Europe. A similar effort should be made for New England,” the group of governors wrote to energy secretary Jennifer Granholm, in a letter seen by the Financial Times.
• New England typically imports LNG from abroad through a terminal near Boston during the coldest months. To the frustration of US gas producers, some states in the region have fought construction of pipelines that would run from the nearby Marcellus shale, one of the world’s largest gasfields.
• “The administration recognises the urgency of which the rest of the world is looking for US natural gas,” said Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, a trade group. “Slowing that as a result of a winter of high prices here seems like a shortsighted geopolitical decision, and I would be surprised if this administration took that kind of action.”

FT (2022 09 06): Opinion: Europe can — and must — win the energy war - Victory will be costly, but the EU has to free itself from Russia’s chokehold

FT (2022 09 05): Russia switches off Europe’s main gas pipeline until sanctions are lifted - Gazprom had previously said it was halting flows through Nord Stream 1 because of a technical fault

• Although Moscow continues to claim technical faults have caused the cuts in gas supplies, Peskov’s comments were the starkest demand yet by the Kremlin that it wants the EU to roll back its sanctions in exchange for Russia resuming full gas deliveries to the continent.
• Russia is still supplying gas to Europe via Soviet-era pipelines through Ukraine that have remained open despite the invasion, as well as the South Stream pipeline via Turkey.
• Volumes on the southern TurkStream pipeline, which primarily supplies Turkey and countries in southern Europe, have not fallen in the same way but are less critical to supplying Europe’s largest economies.
• Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, on Monday acknowledged that certain political factions in the bloc wanted the EU to drop its support for Ukraine, push Kyiv into a ceasefire and abandon sanctions against Russia to ease economic pressure on European countries. He said those views were “not representative” of the position adopted by member states.
• Borrell spoke after protests in recent days in the Czech Republic and Germany against the rising cost of living and comments from Czech politicians on Monday calling for a new attitude from the EU.
• Borrell, speaking alongside Ukraine’s prime minister in Brussels, said there is “clear, complete, unwavering support of all [EU] governments to our position”.

FT (2022 09 02): Russia indefinitely suspends Nord Stream gas pipeline to Europe - Move follows G7 agreement to introduce price cap on Russian oil exports

• Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has made little attempt to hide his goal to undermine western sanctions and stop attempts by Ukraine’s allies to reduce their dependence on Moscow’s oil and gas exports.
• Sergei Vakulenko, an independent energy expert, said that Russia hoped that winter shortfalls might force Europe to plead for gas and agree to at least some of its terms on Ukraine.
• “Every bit counts,” Vakulenko said. “Therefore Russia most likely has decided, that as much as it likes the revenue and creating uncertainty, it’s time for it to create as much of a shortage as possible.”
• Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think-tank, said the latest announcement was an indication that a winter with “zero Russian gas” should be treated as the central scenario for Europe.
• EU member states have also been seeking to diversify their gas supplies, including by purchasing more seaborne liquefied natural gas from countries including the US. The complete halt of Nord Stream leaves just two significant pipeline routes supplying Russian gas to the EU: one through Ukraine and another across the Black Sea and through Turkey.

FT (2022 08 26): Europe gas prices hit record as crisis threatens to trigger recession - EU to convene emergency meeting while fears grow over effect on industry and farming

NYT (2022 07 29): With Russia using energy as leverage, the quest in many parts of Europe is to shrink demand. - Germany may be most vulnerable to Russia’s energy squeeze, but many other countries are also facing, at minimum, high prices and restricted supples.

WSJ (2022 07 26): Europe Agrees to Cut Natural-Gas Consumption as Russia Crimps Supplies - Deal calls for countries to voluntarily reduce their use of the fuel by 15% starting next month Mentions of disunity

FT (2022 07 26): European gas prices soar after Russia deepens supply cuts - Futures contracts hit five-month high after Gazprom announces drop in flows Threat of recession

NYT (2022 07 25): Russia Cuts Gas Flow to Europe, Intensifying Fears It Is Weaponizing Fuel - On the eve of a European Union meeting to debate a gas conservation plan to make the bloc less vulnerable to a Russian squeeze, Moscow slashed the flow to Germany.

• But as Western countries attempt to curb the flow of fossil fuel revenue that supports Russia’s government, its war machine and much of its economy, their moves have required a daunting combination of agreement among each other, placating public opinion in their democracies and steering global markets. News of Gazprom’s latest supply cut drove the price of European gas futures up 12 percent on Monday; the price, previously below 30 euros per megawatt-hour, has soared in the past year, at times topping €180, or $184.
• New divisions have emerged on the E.U. proposal to cut gas use, as countries like Greece and Spain that do not rely heavily on Russian gas have chafed at the idea of asking businesses and people to conserve to help Germany, their wealthier northern partner. And European officials are racing to come up with alternative supplies from the Middle East, the United States and elsewhere.
• “Gazprom’s announcement should not surprise,” Mr. Tagliapietra said. “Russia is playing a strategic game here. Fluctuating already low flows is better than a full cutoff as it manipulates the market and optimizes geopolitical impact.”
• The European Commission conservation plan calls for shared sacrifice — with the promise of aid to the countries that run into the deepest trouble — on the rationale that the E.U. economy is so integrated that a blow to one nation is a blow to all. That is especially true since the most immediately vulnerable country, Germany, is the continent’s economic powerhouse.
• Some member states in the bloc’s south and beyond that use little gas or do not buy it primarily from Russia say the commission’s proposal makes little sense, but a version of it could survive a vote. Unlike E.U. sanctions and the partial oil embargo, which require unanimity, the gas conservation plan needs only a “reinforced majority,” meaning the backing of 15 member states representing 65 percent of the E.U. population.

FT (2022 07 24): EU countries seek exemptions to Brussels’ plans to cut gas demand - Pushback against commission proposal to reduce Russian dependence some member states see as too stringent

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